Predicting the NFC West

I was supposed to embark on this plan almost 10 days ago, but trips to Utah and Idaho can take some wind out of your sails for writing.  But, amidst the dreary cosmopolitan bustle of DC, let’s turn our attention out west again.

The NFC West has some intriguing storylines this year.  Can the 49ers continue their surprising run of a season ago?  What about Sam Bradford and his sophomore slump, will that continue?  More importantly, can Kevin Kolb or Pete Carroll actually perform the jobs they are paid for?

1.      San Francisco 49ers

The Skinny: As many know, scheduling matters a ton in the NFL.  And this year is no different.  The 49ers play the Packers, Lions, Bears, Giants, Saints, and Patriots and will need their A game to win.  In that mode, all depends on Alex Smith.  He was dead-on-arrival this time last year but then led the 49ers to the NFC Championship, so Smith deserves some credit.  He also did so without much offensive weaponry around him.  The 49ers used the offseason to change all of that, adding Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, and rookie A.J. Jenkins at wide receiver.  Of course, Moss likely will not play much of a factor, but his sprinting ability down the sideline can stretch most defenses.  For running backs, look for a more balanced attack this year.  While Brandon Jacobs looks to be out after a knee injury Saturday night, Kendall Hunter played very well last year and likely will bear some of the load off Frank Gore.

The Gaping Hole: Honestly folks, there aren’t many on this team.  While I’m tempted to tell the 49ers how little they should trust Carlos Rogers two seasons in a row, the only possible area of concerns looks to be the right side of the offensive line.  The right guard position, according to local sources, will be an open competition, and right tackle doesn’t have any daunting claimants.  Overall, a fairly talented roster.

Key Games: Sep. 9 at Packers, Sept. 16 vs. Lions, Nov. 11 vs. Rams, Nov. 19 vs. Bears, Nov. 25 at Saints

Prediction: I’m going with 11-5 for the Miners, but the three straight games after the bye week in November will likely define this season.  The first two weeks of the season are tough tests against the Packers and Lions, but given the weakness of the division as a whole there’s no reason the 49ers shouldn’t win at least nine games.  Assuming they beat the Giants at home and one of the key games, San Fran will be back in the playoffs with a vengeance.

2.      St. Louis Rams

The Skinny: Surprised?  Maybe you should be, but given the other options are Pete Carroll or Kevin Kolb, the Rams have a chance to be much better this year.  On one front, the offensive line will be much better.  The Rams added Scott Wells at center and Jason Smith, the former top pick, took a pay cut to stay in St. Louis and prove himself.  Add in a healthy Danny Amendola and Steve Smith the Lesser at receiver and it’s safe to bet the passing offense does much better this year.  On the other side of the ball, new coach Jeff Fisher will make this defense great eventually, but leaps and bounds will be seen this year.  Chris Long, Robert Quinn, and Michael Brockers are all first-round talent on the defensive line with Cortland Finnegan at cornerback to create toughness.  They might not be great, but the defense certainly will be better.

The Gaping Hole: Despite additions of Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins, the secondary still might give up some big plays.  Quentin Mikell has played for a while at free safety, but strong safety continues to be a problem for this defense.  I also see some doubts on the outside linebackers, as James Laurinaitis continues his one-man show for the Rams.  For opposing quarterbacks, the Rams could be very easy to exploit this season.

Key games: Sep 9 at Lions, Oct 28 vs. Patriots, Dec. 2 vs. 49ers

Prediction: Tough team to predict since so much rides on Bradford, but I have the Rams at 9-7 this year, with 8-8 also a distinctive possibility.  It’s tough to imagine this team being as bad as it was last year considering its defensive improvements and Bradford’s talent.  Games against the Lions in Week 1 and the Patriots in Week 8 are huge for this team, not necessarily because they could win (they likely won’t) but the Ram competition level will set the table for the season. 

3.      Seattle Seahawks

The Skinny: Hopefully I’m not the only one tired of the Seahawks this offseason, but the uncertainty surrounding this team continues to grow.  Matt Flynn will likely be the second coming of Matt Hasselbeck, but don’t expect benefits this year.  The much-publicized addition of Terrell Owens at wide receiver ensures some interest in Seattle, but knowing T.O. he will find a way to be thrown out of town.  If Sidney Rice can return to Minnesota form, the receiving game might have a chance with Rice, Owens, and Baldwin, but given Rice’s production in Seattle the chances are slim he puts it together.  The defense of this team played very, very well last year, and will keep this team in games this year. 

The Gaping Hole: While the quarterback position remains uncertain, the running game looks to be in trouble.  Sure, Marshawn Lynch went nuts last year, but his off the field baggage and huge offseason contract might mean a season of suspension and lackadaisical effort on Lynch’s behalf.  If he plays poorly, the entire offensive scheme will be adversely affected.

Key Games: Basically every game before their bye week, which includes opponents like the Cowboys, Packers, Panthers, Patriots, 49ers, and Lions.  There is a good chance this team might be 1-7 by Week 8, in which case Pete Carroll will be departing early.

Prediction: He will be gone no matter what, since this team won’t finish above 7-9 with their brutal schedule.  6-10 seems more likely to me, but regardless, the farce of Pete Carroll will end for all of us.

4.      Arizona Cardinals

The Skinny: Everyone admits this team is mediocre, but the question remains just how mediocre they might be.  The Cardinals last year played inspired football with John Skelton at quarterback, and the defense shut down opponents in the second half of the season.  Lest we forget, longtime stud Larry Fitzgerald and rookie Michael Floyd now patrol the perimeters at the receiver position and Beanie Wells, fresh off a 1200-yard season, adds a considerable depth to the offense.

The Gaping Hole: Forget everything I just said and realize the uncertainty at quarterback.  If Kevin Kolb starts the season, things could go downhill for the Cards in a hurry.  John Skelton might have a better record, but whether his skill-set puts this team in rarified air still needs to be determined.  But, does it matter who’s quarterback?  The offensive line of the Arizona has allowed 104 sacks the last two seasons…should that repeat, it won’t matter who’s playing under center.  Of slightly less importance are expectations for Wells, who while a 1200-yard rusher last year, had 228 of those yards in a win against the Rams.  It’s tough to expect that kind of production even once in a season, much less twice in two seasons, so Wells may not provide the necessary offensive balance.

Key Games: Sep. 16 at Patriots, Sep. 23 vs. Eagles, Dec. 16 vs. Lions, Dec. 23 vs. Bears

Prediction: I agonized over this…betting money puts the Cardinals around 7-9 this year, but I see wide possibilities.  The Key Games above are back-to-back contests and including a game against the Packers, the ability for Arizona to win in the NFC West will determine this season.  I don’t trust either quarterback with this team nor the running game.  I predict 5-11 with Ken Whisenhunt lucky to retain his job for next season.

Bit #1: Is it time to change baseball testing?

Last week, the Giants outfielder and All-Star MVP Melky Cabrera was suspended 50 games for using a banned substance.  Initially, Cabrera was apologetic, accepting the responsibility for the test and owning it.  What a class act.

Until he wasn’t…subsequent reports showed Cabrera spearheaded efforts to create a fictitious website for the product he took in an attempt to pass the testosterone supplement off as legitimate.  Apparently, MLB investigators easily saw through the ruse, and Cabrera now looks less like a class act and more like a cheat.  Should the allegations of website malfeasance be true, Cabrera’s honesty all of a sudden looks opportunistic, not necessarily genuine.  Are we to believe he’s really sorry for taking the substance if he tried to cover it up?

Over the weekend, Victor Conte, the former head of BALCO and a name forever associated with steroids, estimated at least 50% of players still use enhancers.  Should he be right, the introduction of stringent testing has not dented the use of steroids in baseball.  What Conte doesn’t acknowledge is four players this season have tested positive, more than the last two seasons combined, so the system clearly has some benefits and must be improving.  But, Cabrera’s test has revived the debate about testing, administered by baseball during the season but not in any kind of random manner.  A 50-game suspension without pay can equate to a lot for the average ballplayer, and given that only two folks ever got caught twice, the incentive structure works for the current testing model.  Undoubtedly, if baseball and the players’ union could somehow agree to random testing, more players would test positive, but that likely will not happen anytime soon.  For now, while cheating is still cheating, the only revision would be to increase the first-time suspension from 50 games to a harsher penalty.  And that make sense…players will not stop using drugs without a huge deterrent.  While 50 games might be a lot, Cabrera can still win the NL Batting Title this season, so loopholes exist for the suspension to matter not at all from a statistical standpoint.  Baseball should make the first time penalty 100 games to really send a message to cheaters that they will lose a season in every real sense of the word.

Bit #2: Notre Dame Futility

Rick Reilly wrote an article this week begging for Notre Dame to be relegated from the ranks of college football’s “top” programs on account of its poor play in the last fifteen years.  Reilly bemoans the special privileges given to Notre Dame through the BCS, NBC broadcasts, and preseason rankings.

And he’s right, to a certain extent.  Notre Dame undeservedly receives those benefits, but Reilly acts as if the university deserves the blame.  Last I checked, the BCS and NBC make decisions to give Notre Dame special preference.  Notre Dame might be guilty of arrogance but they do not decide NBC revenues and BCS policies.  As for their conference alignment, the days of Notre Dame as an independent will end soon.  Their recruiting classes do not compare to those of the 80s for one, but also do you expect NBC to continue the Notre Dame broadcasts?  NBC’s broadcasts bring in less than half the viewership of games on ABC and CBS, so eventually Notre Dame will either need to play better or lose their precious TV revenue, meaning conferences will come into play for purely financial reasons.

Not to insult Domers out there either, but any consternation at the article should be tempered with a realization the team has not beaten anyone of national significance in the last ten years (Navy and Army don’t count).  While it might seem unfair to a storied football program, expectations for Notre Dame need to deflate.  And that means for everyone; fans and media, to understand South Bend isn’t what it once was and will need some time to re-create the magic.

Bit #3: BoSox have no one to blame but themselves

The Bobby Valentine soap opera continued in Boston this week, as the text message that started a players-only meeting with ownership last month again reared an ugly head.  Rumors now put Kelly Shoppach, a former Red Sox catcher, behind the meeting’s origin.  Many in the sports media world are following this story, the main reason being the scurrilous details emanating from Red Sox games.  Bobby V never seems to have any other coach or player talking to him, a marked difference between him and managers like Joe Girardi of the Yankees or Ron Washington of the Rangers.  He looks to be on his own in that organization, figuratively and literally.  Players might be on the verge of open revolt.

Which is exactly what the ownership signed up for…the worst aspect of this story are the modified expectations for how Valentine would run the clubhouse.  He entered Boston not as a player’s coach but as something of a disciplinarian who could fix the laxity of the Boston clubhouse spewed over TV last September.  Did everyone expect the team to enjoy his personality?  If that was a key concern, Francona never should have been fired.  The Red Sox are reaping what they sowed a while ago, and it’s a little unfair to expect Bobby V to inherit a disinterested team and then make everything hunky-dory.  At the same time, he is responsible for the record and if the team was winning the clubhouse atmosphere would definitely be different.  But the Red Sox need to understand the problems they faced in September and why they picked Valentine to lead this group.  From the sounds of it, he shouldn’t have been hired in the first place.